The US state division has eliminated a extremely symbolic phrase from its routine replace on Taiwan. Its earlier briefings stated: “We do not support Taiwan independence.” This disappeared on February 13 2025.
That’s not all. Donald Trump’s new authorities additionally acknowledged on the identical day that it advocated a peaceful and coercion free decision to the Sino-Taiwan difficulty and opposes unilateral changes to the established order from both facet. These could look like small tweaks to earlier US positions, however they’re sending an enormous sign to China.
Beijing is anxious that the modifications within the state department’s factsheet recommend that Trump’s authorities could also be taking a stronger tack than was anticipated in being ready to defend, or throw assist behind, the island of Taiwan.
The problem for China is that it sees Taiwan as a breakaway province, which it believes ought to return to Beijing’s orbit. Many Taiwanese see it as a separate state.
China hasn’t dominated out using pressure to make Taiwan a part of the republic and has even despatched warplanes to defend the Taiwan Strait up to now week. China claims the waterway between the island and the mainland as its own, although that is disputed underneath the United Nations conference on the regulation of the ocean.
Beijing can be involved that Washington’s updated wording on Taiwan would possibly imply that the US is much less more likely to stand idly by if China invades the island than it might have expected. However what’s additionally fascinating is why the US is warming as much as Taiwan regardless of how aggrieved Trump has been by how Taiwan has “stolen” the semiconductor trade from the US.
Trump’s eye on enterprise
Given Trump’s transactional, or business-first method, in direction of politics, it’s hardly shocking that Washington’s up to date assertion of assist on Taiwan’s independence could also be aimed in direction of enhancing US relatively than Taiwanese pursuits.
Many in Trump’s second cupboard resembling Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Nationwide Safety Advisor Mike Waltz are China hawks who view Beijing as a nationwide safety menace and advocate a extra aggressive stance in direction of China. One main US concern is China’s rising affect in Asia, which challenges US influence within the region.
Whereas Washington nonetheless seems to tip its hat in direction of a one-China policy, its up to date assertion on Taiwanese independence means that the US would possibly undertake an aggressive method to any transfer by Beijing. The US’s watching temporary on the China-Taiwan battle will imply Beijing should assume laborious earlier than taking any measures in direction of reclaiming the island proper now.
A weakened Beijing?
China’s president, Xi Jinping, had hoped to win worldwide hearts and minds by way of the Belt and Road Initiative, its world commerce plan to construct a world community of nations receiving Chinese language funding. However as China’s personal economic system is weakened by a real estate crisis that began in 2021, the purpose of displaying Xi’s success by way of financial means is just not understanding as hoped.
The opposite avenue for Xi to reinforce his fame as chief is to bring Taiwan back into the Chinese language fold. Because the Chinese language Communist celebration got here to energy in 1949, varied Chinese language leaders have made reunification with Taiwan a long-term goal. So, if Xi might return Taiwan to China, he may very well be hailed domestically as one of many biggest leaders the nation has ever seen.
If China’s plan to reunify with Taiwan was already a serious problem, Washington’s altered stance on Taiwan independence and overt opposition in direction of coercion or using pressure makes this process much more troublesome for Beijing. This might weaken Xi’s picture and undermine his rule additional (and should after all be a part of Trump’s agenda).
Prepped for the negotiation desk
The US and China had spent years in commerce negotiations earlier than US tariffs had been imposed on China throughout Trump’s first time period, culminating within the phase one deal in January 2020. Trump has already announced an additional 10% of tariffs on Chinese language items in his first month in workplace.
It’s believable that these statements on Taiwan are geared toward enhancing Washington’s bargaining energy within the burgeoning China-US trade war.
In 2016, Trump accused China of “raping” the US with unfair commerce insurance policies, and imposed tariffs of as much as 25% on Chinese language items coming into the US. Throughout his 2024 presidential marketing campaign path, Trump went so far as to means that tariffs on Chinese language items might go as excessive as 60%.
Increased tariffs are unhealthy information for China for the reason that nation relies heavily on exports for financial progress, particularly on excessive tech “new three” merchandise – electrical automobiles, lithium batteries and photo voltaic panels – to get better its ailing economic system.
Nevertheless, if Beijing is pressured to retreat from Taiwan, Xi might need to fall again closely on the economic system to take care of political legitimacy. When that occurs, Beijing may very well be pressured to supply concessions to the Individuals, resembling buying more US products, and to deal with how subsidies are used to assist Chinese language corporations to the detriment of US companies in China.
General, it’s probably that somebody on Trump’s group has thought of all of the implications of tweaking its Taiwan stance, and sees it as understanding nicely for the US economic system and, doubtlessly, the Trump authorities general. Taiwan is only a pawn within the sport.
