Since returning to the White Home in 2025, US President Donald Trump has dramatically reshaped US coverage towards Russia, adopting a markedly softer stance on Vladimir Putin and the continuing battle in Ukraine. This strategy has included cutting military aid to Ukraine, and pressuring Kyiv to just accept unfavourable phrases to finish the combating.
Trump can also be weakening America’s negotiating position by repeatedly and prematurely signalling the concessions the US is keen to make.
Traditionally, Russia has responded to power, not appeasement. As US diplomat and historian George Kennan famously acknowledged in his 1946 Long Telegram, the Soviet Union understood solely the language of energy. He was confirmed proper – all through and because the Chilly Struggle, Western concessions have typically invigorated relatively than calmed Russian aggression.
Trump’s transactional strategy to diplomacy is reinforcing this established sample, emboldening Moscow, and diminishing any prospect of a simply decision to the Russo-Ukrainian battle.
Learn extra:
Trump and Europe: US ‘transactionalism on steroids’ is the challenge facing leaders now
Undermining US leverage
Since February, President Trump has taken a number of actions that align with Russian strategic interests. These have included:
-
Chopping army assist to Ukraine, regardless of bipartisan warnings that lowering help may shift battlefield momentum in Russia’s favor
-
Blocking Nato membership and refusing security guarantees for Ukraine, signalling that territorial enlargement could be rewarded relatively than deterred
-
Blaming Kyiv for the battle whereas downplaying Russia’s duty and ignoring the indeniable actuality that Russia invaded Ukraine, a stance that echoes Kremlin propaganda narratives
-
Criticising Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for suspending elections below martial legislation, regardless of Ukraine’s constitutional justification
-
Siding with Russia, North Korea and Belarus to vote in opposition to a UN decision condemning Moscow’s actions and supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
This strategy mirrors historic examples of Western appeasement, from Neville Chamberlain’s 1938 Munich Agreement to the weak enforcement of President Obama’s “red line” in Syria in 2013. By preemptively providing concessions, Trump has weakened US leverage, eradicating any incentive for Putin to barter in good faith.
Learn extra:
Putin mulls over US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal – but the initial signs aren’t positive
Not like Western democracies, Putin’s Russia operates on energy dynamics relatively than diplomatic courtesies. Trump’s early giveaways – comparable to suggesting the popularity of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories – will due to this fact be seen in Moscow as a present of weak point, not goodwill. This weakens the US’ leverage in negotiations, and by extension that of its allies too.
twentieth century historical past confirms that Russia solely responds to forceful deterrence. The Reagan administration’s Chilly Struggle army buildup undeniably contributed to the Soviet Union’s economic collapse, and Nato expansion within the Nineties and early 2000s deterred Russian ambitions in Jap Europe. Extra not too long ago, the weak US response to the 2014 annexation of Crimea paved the best way for Russia to launch its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Trump’s diplomatic overtures, unaccompanied by credible enforcement mechanisms, mission weak point relatively than pragmatism. This solely encourages Moscow to escalate relatively than compromise.
Alienating America’s allies
Whereas Trump makes an attempt to dealer a take care of Putin, European allies are rising more and more cautious of US dedication to transatlantic security.
His administration downplayed Russia’s risk on the 2025 Munich Safety Convention, shocking European leaders. US disengagement has now pushed the continent towards urgently constructing an independent defence strategy, probably weakening Nato cohesion.
The aforementioned voting alongside Russia on the UN on a Ukraine-related resolution may have additional fractured America’s alliances.
Trump’s insurance policies danger making a strategic vacuum, forcing Europe to behave alone whereas concurrently emboldening Russia and China to increase their geopolitical ambitions.
Putin won’t compromise
Latest peace talks in Saudi Arabia illustrate Russia’s strategic strategy to negotiations. Moscow actively blocked the participation of US particular envoy Keith Kellogg, showcasing its try to govern the diplomatic course of.
This follows a classic Russian negotiating tactic of prolonging talks whereas making unrealistic calls for. In Saudi Arabia, these included protecting occupied Ukrainian territories, limiting Ukraine’s army capabilities, and forbidding overseas peacekeepers.
As analysts have identified, Putin doesn’t intend to cease the battle, solely to reshape the battlefield on his terms. Trump’s miscalculations due to this fact depart Russia free to continue its offensive within the information that US strain on Ukraine will weaken any resistance.
A fragile ceasefire, as is at the moment below negotiation, will enable Russia to regroup and launch new assaults, and may very well be damaged at any time.
China may also be watching intently. If Trump fingers Putin a win, Beijing might really feel emboldened to escalate its army efforts in Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Trump’s credibility disaster
A recent poll discovered that over half of People imagine Trump is just too near Russia. His willingness to publicly sign diplomatic compromises, comparable to stopping Ukraine from becoming a member of Nato, reveals a weak negotiating model that undermines US credibility on the global stage.
Trump’s strategy echoes his previous diplomatic missteps, which some have described as “cowboy diplomacy” – a technique that prioritises private deal-making over structured coverage, in the end resulting in strategic blunders. Removed from strengthening US leverage, his untimely openness about concessions provides Putin room to dictate the phrases of engagement.
Trump’s misreading of Putin’s playbook is resulting in a weaker US place, a extra weak Ukraine, and a divided Nato. Historical past clearly reveals that Russia solely respects energy, not appeasement, but Trump’s diplomacy seems to supply unilateral concessions with little strategic acquire.
Until the US reverses course and reasserts its management in defending Ukraine and deterring Russia, Trump’s insurance policies won’t finish the battle however be certain that it drags on, solely with Moscow as a substitute of Europe or the US dictating its phrases.
