Forward of his first go to to China, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has been at pains to current conferences with Chinese language premier Xi Jinping and different leaders as advancing New Zealand’s best interests.
However there may be arguably a level of cognitive dissonance concerned, given the federal government’s growing strategic entanglement with america – particularly, the administration of President Donald Trump.
It was this perceived pivot in direction of the US that earlier this month noticed a bunch of former senior politicians, together with former prime ministers Helen Clark and Geoffrey Palmer, warn against “positioning New Zealand alongside america as an adversary of China”.
Luxon has dismissed any implied criticism, and says the Nationwide-led coalition stays dedicated to sustaining a bipartisan, unbiased overseas coverage. However the present authorities has definitely emphasised a extra energetic function on the worldwide stage in nearer alignment with the US.
After coming to energy in late 2023, it hailed shared values and pursuits with the Biden administration. It then confidently predicted New Zealand-US relations would go “from power to power” throughout Trump’s second presidency.
Up to now, nothing appears to shaken this conviction. Even after the explosive White Home assembly in February, when Trump claimed Ukrainian chief Volodymyr Zelensky was a warmonger, Luxon confirmed he trusted Trump and the US remained a “dependable” companion.
Whereas Luxon and Overseas Minister Winston Peters apparently disagreed in early April over whether or not the Trump administration had unleashed a “commerce conflict”, the prime minister depicted the story as a “actual media beat-up”. Later the identical month, Luxon agreed with Peters that New Zealand and Trump’s America had “widespread strategic pursuits”.
Nearer US ties
We will hint the Nationwide-led authorities’s nearer safety alignment with the US again to late January 2024.
New Zealand backed two United Nations Basic Meeting resolutions calling for rapid humanitarian ceasefires in Gaza. However Luxon then agreed to send a small Defence Drive crew to the Purple Sea to counter assaults on delivery by Yemeni Houthi rebels protesting the shortage of a Gaza ceasefire.
The federal government has additionally enthusiastically explored participation in “pillar two” of the AUKUS safety pact, with officers saying it has “the potential to be supportive of our nationwide safety, defence, and overseas coverage settings”.
Within the first half of 2025, New Zealand joined a community of US-led strategic groupings, together with:
To make sure, New Zealand governments and US administrations have lengthy had overlapping considerations about China’s rising assertiveness within the Indo-Pacific area and past.
The Labour-led authorities of Jacinda Ardern issued a defence policy statement in 2018 explicitly figuring out China as a risk to the worldwide rules-based order, and condemned the 2022 Solomon Islands-China safety pact.
Ardern’s successor, Chris Hipkins, launched a raft of national security material confirming a rising notion of China’s risk.
And the current government has condemned China’s complete strategic partnership with the Cook dinner Islands – a self-governing entity throughout the New Zealand’s realm – and expressed consternation about China’s current army workouts within the Tasman Sea.
However US fears in regards to the rise of China usually are not equivalent to New Zealand’s. For the reason that Obama presidency, all US administrations, together with the present Trump crew, have recognized China as the largest risk to America’s standing because the dominant international energy.
However whereas the Obama and Biden administrations couched their considerations (nevertheless imperfectly) when it comes to China’s risk to multilateral alliances and a global rules-based order, the second Trump administration represents a radical break from the previous.
Not in NZ pursuits
Trump’s proposed takeovers of Gaza, Canada and Greenland, his administration’s disestablishment of USAID, sanctions towards the Worldwide Felony Court docket, and withdrawal from the Paris Local weather Accord and the UN Council for Human Rights are all opposite to New Zealand’s nationwide pursuits.
Equally, his sidelining of the UN’s humanitarian function in Gaza, his demand for a Ukraine peace deal on Russian phrases, and his assault on free commerce by way of the imposition of tariffs, all battle with New Zealand’s acknowledged overseas coverage positions.
And proper now, Trump’s refusal to sentence Israel’s pre-emptive unilateral assault on Iran reveals once more his administration’s indifference to worldwide legislation and the rules-based order New Zealand subscribes to.
It’s turning into a lot more durable for the Luxon authorities to argue it shares widespread values and pursuits with the Trump administration, or that nearer strategic alignment with Washington balances Chinese language assertiveness within the Indo-Pacific.
Quite the opposite, there’s a actual danger Trump’s obvious assist for Vladimir Putin is considered as weak point by China, Russia’s most vital backer. It could embolden Beijing to be forward-leaning within the Indo-Pacific, together with the Pacific Islands area the place New Zealand has core pursuits.
A greater technique can be for New Zealand to reaffirm its friendship with the US however publicly point out this can’t be maintained on the expense of Wellington’s longstanding dedication to free commerce and a rules-based international order.
Within the meantime, a pleasant reminder to Luxon’s hosts in Beijing may be so as: that New Zealand is an unbiased nation that won’t compromise its commitments to democratic values and human rights.
