Inside hours of President Donald Trump unexpectedly announcing an upcoming ceasefire between Israel and Iran on June 23, 2025, each countries launched airstrikes against the other.
“We mainly have two nations which were preventing so lengthy and so onerous that they don’t know what the f–okay they’re doing,” an offended and annoyed Trump told reporters outdoors the White Home on June 24.
Whereas Iran and Israel have tentatively agreed to the truce – and Trump reiterated on June 24 that the “ceasefire is in effect” – it isn’t clear whether or not this deal can maintain. Some analysis exhibits that an estimated 80% of ceasefire deals worldwide fail.
Amy Lieberman, a politics and society editor at The Dialog U.S., spoke with former Ambassador Donald Heflin, an American profession diplomat who serves as the manager director of the Edward R. Murrow Heart on the Fletcher College, Tufts College, to know how ceasefires usually work – and the way the Israel-Iran deal stacks up in opposition to different agreements to finish wars.
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How do ceasefire offers usually occur?
There are lessons taught on the best way to negotiate ceasefires, however it’s advert hoc with every scenario.
For instance, in a single state of affairs, one of many combatants desires a ceasefire and has determined that the battle isn’t going effectively. The second get together may not need a ceasefire, however may agree that it’s getting drained or the dangers are too excessive, and agrees to work one thing out.
The subsequent state of affairs, which ends up in extra success, is when each events need a ceasefire. They determine that the lack of life and cash has gone too far for either side. One of many events approaches the opposite by intermediaries to say it desires a ceasefire, and the opposite warring get together agrees.
In a 3rd scenario – which is what we’re seeing with the Iran-Israel deal – the skin world imposes a ceasefire. Trump possible advised each Israel and Iran: Look, it’s sufficient. That is too harmful for the remainder of the world. We don’t care what you assume. Time for a ceasefire.“
The U.S. has carried out this within the Center East earlier than, like after the Yom Kippur War in 1973 between Israel and a coalition of Arab nations led by Egypt and Syria. Israel was reaching huge navy victories, however the threat was fairly nice for the world. The U.S. got here in and mentioned, “That’s sufficient, cease it now.” And it labored.
Does the US deliver the combatants to a desk in this type of scenario, or just strain the nations to cease preventing?
It’s extra of the U.S. saying, “We’re carried out.” When the U.S. does one thing like this, it’s usually going to have backup from the European Union and different nations like Qatar, saying, “The People are proper. It’s time for a ceasefire.”
It seems that this Israel-Iran deal doesn’t have particular circumstances connected to it. Is that typical of a ceasefire deal?
This deal doesn’t appear to have any particular particulars connected to it. Ceasefires work higher once they have that. Lasting ceasefires want to deal with the considerations of the combatants and provides either side a few of what it desires.
As an example, within the Ukraine and Russia struggle, now we have not seen both a kind of nations push for a ceasefire. A part of the problem is Crimea and japanese Ukraine, sections of land in Ukraine that Russia has annexed and claims as its personal. Russia can be pleased with a deal that places it in command of Crimea and Ukraine, however Ukraine received’t conform to that. The query of who controls particular areas of land must be addressed on this battle; in any other case, the ceasefire isn’t going to final.

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Who’s answerable for making certain that either side uphold a ceasefire?
Safety ensures are an necessary a part of negotiating and sustaining long-term ceasefires. Massive nations just like the U.S. may say that if a warring get together violates a ceasefire settlement, they’ll punish them.
Within the Nineties, the U.S. and Europe assured Ukraine that if it gave up its nuclear arsenal, the U.S. would defend Ukraine if Russia ever invaded it. Russia has invaded Ukraine twice since then, in 2014 and 2022. The U.S. gave a more substantial response within the type of sending weapons and different struggle supplies to Ukraine after the 2022 invasion, however there have been no actual penalties for Russia.
That has created an issue for ceasefires sooner or later, as a result of the U.S. didn’t ship on its previous safety ensures.
The additional away you get from Europe, the much less the West is in wars. However in these sorts of disputes, United Nations and different worldwide peacekeeping troops could be despatched in. Typically, that may work brilliantly in a single place, like with the instance of international peacekeeping troops referred to as the multilateral Observer Mission stationed between Israel and Egypt serving to preserve peace between these nations. However you possibly can copy it to a different place and it simply doesn’t work as effectively.
How does this ceasefire match throughout the historical past of different ceasefires?
It’s too early to inform. What issues is how the main points get fleshed out.
Ideally, you may get representatives of the Israeli and Iranian governments to take a seat round a convention desk to succeed in an in depth settlement. The Israelis may say, “Now we have acquired to have some sort of assurances that Iran is not going to use a nuclear weapon.” And the Iranians may say, “Assassinations of our military generals and scientists has acquired to cease.” That sort of dialog and settlement is what’s lacking, to date, on this course of.
Why is it so widespread for ceasefire offers to fail?
Some ceasefire offers don’t get to the underlying circumstances of what actually brought on the issue and what made individuals begin taking pictures this time round. Should you don’t get to the core problems with a battle, you’re placing a Band-Help on the scenario. Placing a Band-Help on somebody when they’re bleeding is an efficient transfer, however you in the end may want greater than that to cease the bleeding.
The surface world is likely to be fairly pleased with a ceasefire deal that appears to cease the preventing, but when the main points usually are not ironed out, the consultants would say, “This isn’t going to final.”