After the second world struggle, the US and its western allies created a set of international agreements and institutions to manipulate attitudes to mutual defence, economics and human rights. For many years this created steady alliances and predictable financial plans.
However, in contrast to his predecessors, Donald Trump believes that worldwide organisations undermine US pursuits and sovereignty. He has withdrawn the US from the World Well being Group, and there’s hypothesis he may scale back US dedication to the UN. US funding in Nato’s mutual defence pact remains under discussion.
However whereas Washington is busy sounding the retreat from the very world order it had a hand in constructing, Beijing is trying to enhance its international role. Chinese language management in worldwide businesses affiliated with the UN has increased over time, and so has its financial commitment to worldwide establishments.
That’s not all. China can also be a outstanding member of commerce coalitions such because the
15-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and the ten-member Brics group (led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). These teams not solely promote larger financial integration amongst its members, however might scale back members’ reliance on the US economy and the US dollar. Amid an more and more risky US, China’s presence because the second largest economic system on the earth in these commerce teams could be helpful.
Now with the entire world negotiating new US commerce offers, most nations see their relationship with the US as unstable. China sees this as a golden alternative to place itself as a worldwide counterbalance to the US. Considered one of its insurance policies is to “deliver greater security, prosperity and respect for developing countries”, and that is significantly related in African nations, the place US support is being reduced quickly.
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A US-Sino trade deal was reached in London on June 10 2025. US tariffs on Chinese language items now stand at 55%, whereas Chinese language tariffs on US imports will stay at 10%. However how lengthy this commerce deal will final stays unsure, when Trump tends to alter his thoughts.
Only a month earlier, on Could 12, Washington and Beijing concluded a major trade accord in Geneva aimed toward diffusing huge commerce tensions. Sadly, this deal solely lasted for 18 days earlier than Trump began accusing China of violating the settlement.
However Trump’s tendency to escalate commerce tensions after which diffuse them is not only China’s drawback. His allies are additionally a sufferer of his frequent wavering. This leaves nations all over the world, whether or not conventional US companions or not, in a disaster of not understanding what the US’s subsequent transfer will likely be, and whether or not their economic system will undergo.
In February 2025, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada however temporarily called off the tariffs a month later. Then in early April 2025, Trump raised tariffs on 60 countries and trading blocs, together with conventional US allies such because the EU (20%), Japan (24%), South Korea (25%) and Taiwan (32%). Hours later, Trump unexpectedly rescinded these tariffs, however that prompted massive damage to the worldwide economic system.
If there’s a time that the world wants a extra predictable associate it might be now. But it surely isn’t a Trump-helmed US. A current annual report on democracy and national attitudes signifies that for first time, respondents throughout 100 international locations view China extra favourably than they do the US. So, may China be the associate that the world seeks?
Why China wants commerce
Whereas the world wants a stable environment to promote economic growth, Beijing wants this stability for causes that transcend economics.
Not like liberal democracies that derive their legitimacy by elections, a big a part of Beijing’s legitimacy comes from its potential to ship sustained financial prosperity to the Chinese language individuals. However with a battered economy that was first triggered by a real estate crisis in 2021, this activity of sustaining legitimacy has turn into tougher.
Exporting its means of out the economic slump might have been on Beijing’s books, as this was considered one of China’s traditional methods for selling financial development. However Trump’s commerce struggle has made this an more and more troublesome prospect, particularly to the US which imports 14.8% of total Chinese exports.
Because of this, fixing China’s economic system has turn into a priority for the Chinese language authorities, and it’s due to this that Xi excursions neighbouring Asean international locations resembling Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia to advertise commerce and strategic plans to take care of financial stability.
Obstacles for China
Regardless of all the pieces that China is doing, its picture stays an issue, for some. For example, China has claimed sovereignty over the South China Sea and has built ports, military installations and airstrips on synthetic islands throughout the area, regardless of territorial disputes with its neighbours together with Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.
However there are different issues about China. The nation’s rapid advancements in military technology, for instance, have the potential to destabilise security throughout the Indo Pacific, probably permitting China to take control of strategically positioned islands to make use of as bases for its navy. China can also be turning into a dominant hacking threat, in line with UK cyber knowledgeable Richard Horne, which is more likely to trigger issues for worldwide cybersecurity.
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk as soon as remarked: “With a good friend like Trump, who wants enemies?” Many different nationwide leaders are more likely to share Tusk’s sentiment right now, and might even see alternatives to increase commerce offers with China as an alternative choice to a turbulent relationship with Trump.