Primarily based on pronouncements in 2024, you would possibly assume now could be the time to see U.S. citizens streaming out of the country. Months earlier than the 2024 presidential election, Individuals have been saying they would leave ought to candidate Donald Trump win the election. Gallup polling in 2024 discovered that 21% of Americans wanted to leave the USA completely, greater than double the ten% who had mentioned so in 2011.
And certainly in June 2025, a Vermont legislator introduced that she was resigning her seat and moving to Canada due to political considerations and financial alternatives. To make certain, individuals are shifting. Even so, as a scholar of American migration overseas, my analysis finds that the overwhelming majority of Individuals are usually not about to depart for greener shores.
A western Massachusetts group
In October 2024, I surveyed 68 Individuals in western Massachusetts, an space with a slight Democratic majority, asking in the event that they needed to go away the USA for a prolonged time period, however not essentially completely. Over 90% mentioned no, noting that there have been elements limiting their mobility, corresponding to monetary obligations or having a accomplice who wouldn’t transfer, and that there have been causes that made them need to keep, corresponding to proudly owning property and having pals close by.
Simply three respondents indicated they have been planning to maneuver, whereas an extra 11 mentioned they needed to maneuver “sometime.”
Actuality strikes
After the November 2024 election, I interviewed seven of these respondents, two of whom had mentioned previous to the election that they may go away the USA. After the election, all of them mentioned they deliberate to remain.
One who had mentioned she needed to go away acknowledged her reversal, saying: “I could have flippantly mentioned, ‘Oh, if (Trump) will get voted in … I would go away,’ however I can’t see leaving. A part of it’s due to my daughter,” who had lately grow to be a mom. She continued, “It’s by no means crossed my thoughts significantly sufficient to even analysis it.”
One other instructed me, “I’m not going to let any individual push me out of what I contemplate my nation and my house as a result of he’s a jerk.”
Others spoke of needing to work a number of extra years as a way to obtain a pension, or having household duties preserving them within the nation. None supported the present administration.
On a nationwide stage
In two nationally consultant surveys, my colleague Helen B. Marrow, a sociologist of immigration, and I discovered no important enhance in migration aspiration between 2014 and 2019. We additionally discovered that respondents talked about exploration and journey way more typically than political or financial causes for wanting to maneuver overseas.
Though the U.S. passport grants visa-free customer entry to greater than 180 nations, U.S. residents nonetheless want residence and work visas. At house, they, like others, have household commitments and monetary constraints, or could not need to go away house. Greater than 95% of the world’s inhabitants do not move abroad – and U.S. residents are no different.
Relocation teaching
Along with my tutorial research on abroad Individuals, I’m additionally a world relocation coach. I assist Individuals contemplating a transfer overseas navigate the emotional, sensible {and professional} complexities of relocation, whether or not they’re simply beginning to discover the concept or actively planning their subsequent steps.
Lots of my shoppers don’t need to stay in a United States that no longer aligns with their values, whereas others are involved about their security, significantly, however not solely, on account of racism or homophobia. They’re discovering jobs abroad, retiring overseas or buying a European citizenship by means of a dad or mum or grandparent. Most lately, American academics seeking to leave are being courted by European universities.
However most are staying
In February 2025, a nationwide ballot discovered that 4% of Individuals mentioned they have been “definitely planning to move” to a different nation.
That very same month, I adopted up with my seven interviewees from western Massachusetts, together with one trans man. All of them reiterated their alternative to stay in the USA. One particular person, who would possibly transfer overseas sooner or later, instructed me she hadn’t modified her thoughts about leaving quickly: “Leaving doesn’t essentially imply something shall be higher for me, even when it was a monetary chance.”
Two folks mentioned that latest political developments really meant that they have been extra dedicated to remaining in the USA. One instructed me, “Now, greater than ever, people want to determine what small actions could be taken to assist our fellow Individuals get by means of this darkish interval.”
However even these “positively planning on shifting” can produce other elements intervene. Two shoppers of mine who have been making severe plans needed to cease when members of the family’ well being conditions modified for the more serious.
So how many individuals are literally leaving? It’s clear {that a} rising variety of Individuals are contemplating a transfer overseas. However far fewer are conducting severe analysis, in search of skilled session or really shifting. Drawing on obtainable information, my very own tutorial analysis and my teaching expertise, my educated estimate is that not more than 1% to 2% of U.S. residents are actively making viable plans to go away the nation. Nor are all of these leaving out of protest; many are nonetheless motivated by exploration, journey, employment or to be with a accomplice.
Even so, that determine is roughly 3 million to six million folks – which might be a major enhance over the estimated 5.5 million Americans presently residing overseas. As with many migration flows, even the motion of a small proportion of a inhabitants can nonetheless have the potential to reshape each the USA and its abroad inhabitants.