Canada is caught between two giants with diverging pursuits, the USA and China. It’s additionally grappling with the repercussions of the trade and geopolitical tensions that are pitting these two powers against one another.
On one facet, Canada has an unpredictable and fewer dependable American neighbour, and on the opposite, an uncompromising China, which often imposes economic sanctions on Canada’s strategic agricultural merchandise, together with soybeans and pork.
This exposes the geopolitical vulnerability of Canada, which is just too depending on its conventional companions.
As a political scientist and an economist, respectively, who specialise in worldwide political economic system, we research financial multilateralism, geo-economics and transatlantic relations. This has led us to think about some concrete measures that might strengthen ties between Canada and the European Union.
Wavering American affect
President Donald Trump’s second time period has signalled the decline of the United States as a moral leader of the world. By withdrawing from an rising variety of multilateral agreements, displaying admiration for authoritarian regimes and reviving unfounded accusations of electoral fraud, the Trump administration has weakened America’s repute as a democratic mannequin and trusted participant on the worldwide scene.
(AP Picture/Jacquelyn Martin)
Transatlantic tensions have intensified on account of Trump’s repeated threats to tug the U.S. out of NATO, a transfer that calls into query the safety foundation of the alliance. As well as, the stalemate in trade negotiations between Washington and Brussels illustrates how variations over worldwide commerce guidelines and the safety of strategic industries at the moment are rising.
China is just not a reputable various
Though China is within the midst of economic ascent, the nation doesn’t characterize a reputable various for Canada within the face of the U.S. withdrawal. Collectively, the coercive diplomacy of Chinese language authorities, the nation’s lack of transparency and internal tensions, significantly monetary (its real estate sector is in great difficulty), restrict China’s attraction as a world chief.
Because the 2018 arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver, carried out on the request of the USA, Chinese language-Canadian relations have deteriorated significantly. In retaliation, China arrested two Canadian citizens, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, sparking a major diplomatic crisis.
Since then, distrust has deepened, fuelled by persistent tensions round cybersecurity, overseas interference and commerce restrictions, but additionally by the recent execution in China of four Canadian citizens convicted of drug trafficking.
Learn extra:
Meng for the two Michaels: Lessons for the world from the China-Canada prisoner swap
EU: Financial, strategic alignments
On this world context, the European Union is more and more confronted with the necessity to construct strategic autonomy, each militarily and economically, as a way to assure its sovereignty and long-term stability.
Learn extra:
Le rapprochement entre les É-U et la Russie a des conséquences sur la sécurité de l’Ukraine et de l’Europe
To turn into a stabilizing power, the European Union should meet three circumstances: it will need to have adequate financial energy, reveal the political will to behave collectively and be perceived as a legit and credible entity by different democracies. From this angle, Canada seems to be a pure and dependable companion.
On the business entrance, the foundations for a stronger partnership are already there.
The European Union is Canada’s second-largest trading partner after the U.S. In 2023, the mixed commerce in items and providers between Canada and the EU reached a worth of CA$157.3 billion. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), in power since 2017, has eradicated 98 per cent of customs duties between the 2 companions, which has promoted sustained development in commerce.
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However additional integration would supply full entry to the European single market, harmonization of requirements and synergies in key sectors: inexperienced applied sciences, synthetic intelligence, prescription drugs and cybersecurity. It might additionally give Canada entry to main European applications comparable to Horizon Europe, a analysis fund of 95.5 billion euros (practically $148 billion in Canadian {dollars}).
Moreover, Canada possesses pure resources that are crucial to the European energy transition: lithium, cobalt and nickel. Enhanced collaboration would guarantee a safe and sustainable provide to Europe whereas selling strategic industries on each side of the Atlantic.
(Saul Loeb, Pool Picture through AP)
A transatlantic pillar
In geopolitical phrases, the EU is enterprise a significant change in route.
It’s growing a common defence policy, supported by a funds of 800 billion euros (CA$1,237 billion) and strengthened by the Draghi report, which requires enhanced strategic autonomy, together with the consolidation of a defence industrial and technological base.
Germany, breaking with its custom of budgetary restraint, is investing heavily in its military capabilities. Europe now not merely needs to defend itself alongside the U.S., it needs to emancipate itself from an unpredictable America.
(AP Picture/Manuel Balce Ceneta)
Canada, a staunch NATO ally and supporter of rules-based international order, might play a task within the coalition of the willing — a plan to help Ukraine adopted after the London Summit in March 2025 — inside the EU, with out ready for the unanimous settlement of the 27 EU member nations.
Canada’s participation would make it doable to strengthen the coherence and effectiveness of European motion on the worldwide stage.
Transferring in direction of membership?
The concept of Canada joining the European Union is formidable, however it follows a sure logic.
Canada meets the Copenhagen criteria (rule of legislation, democracy, market economic system) and shares the basic values of the EU. The principle obstacles could be of a technical or political nature: geographical distance, the necessity for Canada to align its legal guidelines and laws with all European requirements (the Community Acquis) and to adapt its agricultural provide administration system to European inner market guidelines.
However Canada doesn’t essentially must purpose for instant formal membership. A extra versatile path may very well be an in depth strategic partnership, impressed by the Norwegian or Swiss fashions however tailored to Canadian realities.
Such a partnership might embody enhanced entry to European markets, participation in joint analysis, defence or vitality transition tasks and elevated co-ordination inside multilateral establishments.
The target wouldn’t be strictly financial, however political and symbolic: to affirm a typical dedication to democracy, worldwide co-operation and respect for the worldwide authorized order.
A strategic turning level for Canada
In a altering world, Canada can now not rely solely on its North American anchor. It should diversify its partnerships and strengthen its strategic autonomy. The transatlantic hyperlink, if rethought in a contemporary and versatile means, can supply this various.
A rapprochement with Europe might additionally assist revitalize the democratic debate in Canada and strengthen each nationwide cohesion round a typical undertaking and its capacity to face future crises, whether or not financial, safety or local weather associated.
The time has come to begin this dialogue, which shouldn’t be thought of a dream, however an train in strategic foresight. Canada’s future could be formed, partially, on the opposite facet of the Atlantic.
