European leaders are scrambling to reply to what seems like the tip of dependable US safety of the continent. It’s unclear what the “main European countries” (which incorporates the UK) may have the ability to agree at a hastily convened meeting in Paris on Monday February 17. However particular person international locations, including the UK and Germany, have come ahead to place concrete affords on the desk for Ukraine’s safety, which may embrace placing their troops on the bottom.
This uncommon circling of the wagons was triggered by the 2025 Munich Security Conference, which ended the day gone by. It dropped at an in depth per week of exceptional upheaval for Europe, leaving little question that two already apparent tendencies within the deteriorating transatlantic relationship accelerated additional.
What the world noticed was unabashed US unilateralism in the case of the warfare in Ukraine. Ominously, there was additionally a transparent indication of the extent of American intentions to intrude within the home political processes of European international locations – most notably the upcoming German parliamentary elections on February 23.
None of this could have come as a shock. However the full-force assault by Donald Trump’s envoys to Europe was nonetheless sobering – particularly as soon as all its implications are thought of. What was, maybe, extra stunning was that European leaders pushed again and did so in an unusually public and unequivocal manner.
Over the course of only a few days, two of the worst European fears have been confirmed. First, the Trump administration is pushing forward with its concept of a US-Russia deal to finish the warfare in Ukraine. And all of the indicators are that Washington plans to go away Ukraine and the EU out of any negotiations and to their very own units in the case of post-ceasefire safety preparations.
On February 12, the US president announced he had spoken at size with Russian president Vladimir Putin, and subsequently knowledgeable Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky of the dialog. The identical day, US defence secretary Pete Hegseth, confirmed at a press convention after a gathering of Nato defence ministers in Brussels that direct negotiations between Russia and the US would start instantly. They won’t embrace any European or Ukrainian officers, he mentioned.
Hegseth additionally poured chilly water on any hopes that there can be sturdy US safety ensures for Ukraine. He explicitly ruled out US troops for any peacekeeping forces deployed by different Nato members, or that any assault on these forces can be thought of an assault on the entire alliance underneath article 5 of the Nato treaty.
The European response was swift and, a minimum of on paper, decisive. Proper after Hegseth’s feedback in Brussels, the Weimar+ group (Germany, France, Poland + Italy, Spain, the UK, the EU’s diplomatic service and the European Fee) issued a joint statement reiterating their dedication to enhanced assist in defence of Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
On February 14, the EU’s prime officers – European council president António Costa and European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen – met with Zelensky on the margins of the convention. They assured him of the EU’s “continued and steady assist to Ukraine till a simply, complete and lasting peace is reached”.
The next day, Costa’s speech in Munich reiterated this dedication. Just like earlier comments by Nato’s secretary normal, Mark Rutte, Costa underlined Europe’s dedication to “to behave higher, stronger and sooner in constructing the Europe of defence”.
However these declarations of the EU’s dedication to proceed supporting Ukraine don’t mirror consensus contained in the Union on such a place. Weimar+ solely features a choose variety of EU member states, establishments and the UK, underlining the persevering with difficulties in reaching unanimity on vital safety and defence points. Unsurprisingly, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, issued a scathing condemnation of the Weimar+ assertion as a “unhappy testomony of dangerous Brusselian management”.
Orbán’s feedback play proper into many Europeans’ fears about one other darkish aspect of Trump’s agenda in the case of transatlantic relations. As foreshadowed within the influential Project 2025 report by a coalition of conservative US thinktanks, the Trump administration is intent on weakening European unity. This may embrace stopping the UK from slipping “again into the orbit of the EU” and “creating new allies contained in the EU – particularly the Central European international locations”.
Opening up divides
The US vice-president, J.D. Vance, used his speech in Munich to claim that the actual menace to European safety was not coming from Russia or China, however fairly “from inside”. He went on to chide “EU commissars” and insinuated that Europe’s present leaders had extra in frequent with the “tyrannical forces on this continent” who misplaced the chilly warfare.
EPA-EFE/Ukrainian presidential press service
In Romania, the place presidential elections have been cancelled after proof of huge Russian election interference emerged, opposition events revelled in Vance’s feedback that the transfer had been based mostly on the “flimsy suspicions of an intelligence company and massive stress from its continental neighbours”. The vice-president has additional exacerbated political divisions in a key European and Nato ally proper on the border with Ukraine.
Vance subsequently sought out Alice Weidel, the co-leader of the right-wing Different for Germany (AfD). The pair reportedly mentioned the warfare in Ukraine, German home politics and the so-called brandmauer. That is the settlement between centre-right and left-wing events in Germany to kind a “firewall” to forestall excessive right-wing events from becoming a member of coalitions, which has just lately been weakened.
Their assembly was widely criticised as one more American try for the occasion to spice up its probabilities at Germany’s upcoming parliamentary elections on February 23. Referring to Germany’s historic expertise with Nazism, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz defended the necessity to maintain the road in opposition to far-right political events just like the AfD.
Polar shift
There have been many watershed moments and wake-up requires Europe up to now. What’s totally different now could be {that a} new multipolar order is rising – and Europe is just not one in all its poles. Equally importantly, given the dedication of this US administration to upend the present worldwide order, Europe is just not part of any pole anymore both.
Concurrently at stake are European unity and the transatlantic relationship. These are the 2 key pillars which have ensured European safety, democracy and prosperity for the reason that finish of the second world warfare. Out of necessity, Europe will probably have to regulate to a much-weakened transatlantic relationship. However the European mission won’t survive with out unity.
It is a vital juncture for Europe. The continent must outline its future place and position within the dysfunctional love triangle of Trump, Putin and Xi, a triumvirate that can form and dominate the brand new world order.
