US president Donald Trump famously known as Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi his “favourite dictator” in 2019, however their relationship has been advanced. Trump’s return to the White Home for a second time period has despatched ripples of concern by Cairo. In January 2025, Trump proposed a resolution to the continuing Israel-Hamas battle in Gaza: forcibly relocating Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan. Trump concurrently threatened to withdraw US help if these international locations didn’t adjust to the proposal. Sisi’s Egypt might want to navigate Trump’s ambition with out sacrificing the regime’s personal survival. Could Darwich, who has studied Arab states’ overseas insurance policies and alliances within the Center East, explains what’s at stake.
How dependent is Egypt on the US?
Over time, Egypt has acquired extra US overseas help than any nation apart from Israel. It has acquired US$78 billion for economic assistance and US$90 billion in military assistance since 1946.
A peace agreement with Israel in 1979 concluded the battle between the 2 international locations. Israeli forces withdrew from Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. Since then, the US has supplied Egypt with a set quantity of US$1.5 billion, of which US$1.3 billion is military aid, yearly. It goes to financing Egypt’s buy of weapons techniques from US defence contractors.
US help has been a cornerstone of Egyptian-US relations for many years.
Since 1979, Egypt has been a central pillar of US insurance policies within the Center East. Navy help is deemed important to make sure that the regime in Egypt aligns with US pursuits. On the similar time, this help is extensively seen as contributing to the survival of Egypt’s authoritarian regime.
However historical past reveals that Egypt can soften the potential affect of the US freezing help in periods of strained relations.
The US suspended some military assistance to Egypt after the regime change in 2013. Throughout that point, el-Sisi, who was elected president in 2014, acquired assist from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. He additionally increased weapon imports from France and Russia.
After a interval of evaluate, the Barack Obama administration launched help to Egypt to protect US pursuits. As US secretary of state John Kerry as soon as explained:
We’re getting a return on that funding that isn’t inconsequential. The military additionally helps us implement safety within the Sinai (in Egypt). The military can also be serving to us implement the Gaza peace.
Ought to this relationship come beneath pressure once more, Egypt may be taught to develop into much more impartial. China’s affect in Egypt is growing, and the Gulf states that take pleasure in a detailed relationship with Sisi can also resolve to commit funding.
How has Egypt balanced its pursuits with Arab states, Israel and the US?
The signing of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty in 1979 marked a shift in Egyptian overseas coverage. The treaty aligned Egypt with the west in recognising Israel. This resolution, nevertheless, led to Egypt’s isolation within the Arab world and its expulsion from the Arab League (it was readmitted in 1989).
When Mohamed Hosni Mubarak assumed energy following Anwar el-Sadat’s assassination in 1981, Egypt needed to steadiness its partnership with the US, preserve peace with Israel and reconcile its relations with Arab states.
Egypt condemned Israeli aggression in opposition to Palestinians and in opposition to Lebanon in 1982 and 2006, and froze efforts to normalise relations with Israel. This bolstered its pivotal place in Arab circles with out jeopardising its peace with Israel.
In the meantime, Egypt helped US army property to maneuver throughout the area and oil to stream by the Suez Canal. It maintained peace and stability with Israel by pressuring Palestinian resistance actions into de-escalation. This balancing act allowed Egypt to develop into a mediator between Palestine and Israel.
Egypt beneath Sisi has made efforts to keep up the balancing act. Nonetheless, the continuing Gaza war has intensified Egypt’s challenges. These embrace refugee flights and instability at its border. The battle has additionally threatened Egypt’s longstanding function within the Center East area.
How has the Gaza battle threatened Egypt’s balancing act?
The onset of the Gaza battle in October 2023 put Egypt on edge. Cairo is apprehensive about Israel’s potential technique of forcibly finding Palestinians to the Sinai Peninsula, which is on its territory. Egyptian officers have deemed that situation as a red line. Cairo doesn’t wish to be seen as undermining the Palestinian trigger.
Additionally, Egyptians harbour considerations that the presence of a considerable Palestinian inhabitants in Sinai – which hyperlinks Africa to Asia, and borders Israel and Gaza – may rework the area into a launchpad for attacks on Israel. This might compel Egypt to both suppress such actions or face retaliation from Israel.
This concern stems from a 1955 incident. The Israeli military raided an Egyptian army camp within the Gaza strip, which was then beneath Egyptian management. Seventeen troopers have been killed following a Palestinian militant’s killing of an Israeli. A plan to maneuver Palestinians to Sinai sparked protests within the Gaza strip, bringing the Egyptian army in direct confrontation with Palestinians.
This historic occasion has continued to form Egyptian overseas coverage, which rejects any relocation of Palestinians in Sinai.
The present battle has highlighted structural weaknesses within the already precarious Egyptian economy. The Houthi attacks within the Purple Sea that started in 2024 brought about a sharp drop in revenues from the Suez Canal, a crucial supply of overseas income for Egypt.
Sisi performed on European fears that what occurred in Gaza may hurt Egypt’s financial scenario and result in mass migration to Europe. However money infusions gained’t remedy the deep-seated financial challenges going through the nation.
Cairo’s function as a mediator between the west, Israel and the Arab world is going through renewed challenges. Different mediators, like Qatar, have emerged.
What may have an effect on Egypt’s response to Trump’s proposal to relocate Palestinians?
Trump’s proposal locations the Egyptian regime in a precarious place. If Egypt agrees to the plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza, it will signify a dramatic departure from its foundational overseas insurance policies. It may additionally reignite discontent amongst its inhabitants.
Rejecting the proposal would pressure Egypt-US relations, doubtlessly undermining the assist for Sisi’s regime, which could then have to hunt help from different international locations.
The Gaza battle underscores Egypt’s historic and political entanglement with the Palestinian difficulty.
