The administration of latest US president Donald Trump is reportedly considering various options to forestall Iran from with the ability to construct a nuclear weapon. These embrace renegotiating a second nuclear deal, pursuing a coverage of “most strain” towards Tehran by ramping up sanctions, and conducting airstrikes on Iranian nuclear services.
These discussions follow a report launched in November 2024 by the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the Worldwide Atomic Power Company, which discovered Iran was dangerously near enriching uranium to weapons-grade ranges. The report additionally mentioned that Iran was planning to put in greater than 6,000 new centrifuges to counterpoint extra uranium.
There are, nevertheless, points related to every of the three choices obtainable to Trump.
1. Renegotiating the nuclear deal
The Joint Complete Plan of Motion, often known as the Iran nuclear deal, was negotiated below the administration of Barack Obama in 2015. Signed by Iran and a number of other world powers, the deal positioned restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme in trade for sanctions reduction.
Iran was required to scale back its uranium stockpile by 98% and hold its degree of uranium enrichment at 3.67%. That is considerably beneath the extent wanted to create a bomb.
Nevertheless, Trump withdrew from the Iran deal throughout his first time period as president, saying it was “horrible” and “one-sided”. He argued it lacked verification measures and did little to curb Iran’s assist for terrorist teams. He additionally remarked that it failed to deal with the regime’s growth of ballistic missiles able to delivering nuclear warheads.
There’s assist for a renegotiated deal inside varied coverage circles in Washington. However there was a pointy enhance in anti-American sentiment in Iran over latest years, which has lowered the probability of Tehran returning to the negotiating desk.
Opinion polls launched after Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran deal in 2018 confirmed that 70% of Iranians thought Tehran mustn’t make any additional concessions to the US for a future nuclear deal.
The assassination of Iranian army commander Common Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 has additional eroded Trump’s picture in Tehran. Soleimani, who the Pentagon mentioned was “accountable for the deaths of tons of of American and coalition service members”, was killed by an American drone strike close to Baghdad Worldwide Airport in Iraq.
This anti-American sentiment has been exacerbated via fiery speeches from Iran’s supreme chief, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He vowed “extreme revenge” on these accountable for Soleimani’s demise, and pronounced the US as “criminals”. Up to now, Khamenei has additionally labelled Trump’s behaviour as “ugly and disgusting”.
Abedin Taherkenareh / EPA
2. Ramping up sanctions
Iran has a deep-rooted historic aversion to western and, extra particularly, American hegemony. Because the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran has cemented a foreign policy outlook of viewing the “American-led hegemonic order” when it comes to “international vanity”.
This theme has been mirrored by the Atomic Power Group of Iran, which controls Iran’s nuclear programme. In a social media post in 2020, it mentioned Iranian nuclear scientists had been “able to face the coercion and unilateralism of the US authorities referring to the usage of nuclear power”.
Trump’s campaign of maximum pressure on Iran throughout his first time period solely strengthened Tehran’s pondering on American domination. Numerous Iranian officers condemned the US-led sanctions as “financial terrorism” and criticised Washington’s “thirst for struggle”.
The Iranian authorities has additionally repeatedly used the sanctions to garner public assist for its management. In April 2024, Khamenei urged the Iranian people to view sanctions as an try and drive Iran to adjust to “colonising, imperialistic insurance policies” and undergo “tyrannical calls for”.
There are some indicators that this messaging has labored. In a 2024 survey of two,280 Iranian residents, greater than 69% of respondents expressed assist for Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Imposing additional sanctions is prone to deepen Iran’s opposition to the US, complicating efforts to renegotiate a nuclear deal.
The regime will most likely be undeterred by the return of Trump’s most strain marketing campaign, even when it leads to new sanctions from different nations. Iran’s nuclear programme has demonstrated exceptional resilience through the years.
Tehran at the moment has more than five tonnes of enriched uranium at its disposal. And the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, estimated in July 2024 that Iran is now able to producing “one bomb’s value of fissile materials” in “about 12 days”.
3. Placing Iranian services
The ultimate possibility being thought of by Trump’s staff is preventive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear services. This feature would signify a departure from the longstanding US coverage of containing Tehran via financial coercion. It might additionally most likely end in a major escalation of hostilities between the 2 nations.
To grasp the dangers related to US army motion in Iran, contemplate the occasions of the previous few months. In October 2024, Israel carried out a series of airstrikes on Iran in retaliation for a barrage of Iranian strikes on its territory. This concerned a strike on a nuclear weapons analysis facility close to Tehran generally known as Taleghan 2.
The Iranian elites had been fast to reply with a number of confrontational political statements. Ayatollah Khamenei vowed “a tooth-breaking response” towards Israel and its ally, the US. His adviser, Kamal Kharrazi, stated that “if an existential menace arises, Iran will modify its nuclear doctrine”. Khamenei issued a fatwa, or non secular ruling, towards the usage of nuclear weapons in 2003.
STR / EPA
US strikes on Iranian soil are actually not out of the query. In October 2024, Trump expressed assist for Israeli retaliation towards Iran. He urged Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear programme first, and “fear about the remainder later”. Strikes like these solely encourage Iran to interrupt from its religious decree of not producing and utilizing nuclear weapons.
Fairly than debating hawkish insurance policies to thwart Iran’s nuclear programme, I imagine America’s method needs to be to observe and wait. This is able to be key in assessing whether or not Iran, whose financial system has been crippled by sanctions, leans in the direction of China and Russia for commerce, or comes again to the negotiating desk for a second nuclear deal.
