On June 5, U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call with Chinese language President Xi Jinping. It marked the primary direct dialog between the 2 leaders since Trump started his second time period — and the primary since tensions sharply escalated in 2025’s U.S.-China commerce warfare.
After the decision, Trump was fast to border it as successful for his administration, posting on social media that it led to “a really constructive conclusion for each Nations.” He later told reporters that Xi had agreed to renew exports of uncommon earth minerals and magnets to the U.S. — allaying the fears of the auto trade, which had beforehand warned that components suppliers had been going through extreme and fast dangers to manufacturing.
The presidential cellphone name additionally yielded an invite for Trump and first girl Melania to go to China, an invite that Trump reciprocated.
However apart from the easing of some commerce pressure and surface-level niceties, the decision conveyed refined messages about an imbalance within the bilateral dispute. As an knowledgeable on U.S.-China relations, I imagine these subtleties level to Xi having the upper hand in U.S.-China talks and likewise utilizing Trump as a foil to burnish his own image as a strong leader at residence and overseas.
A uncommon earths ace
The Trump-Xi name mustn’t distract from the delicate state of China-U.S. relations — and the willingness of Beijing to play its “rare earth materials card.”
Beijing suspended rare earth shipments to prominent American companies following the U.S. imposition of tariffs on China.
Though China and U.S. delegations reached a 90-day tariff truce in Geneva on Might 12, negotiations between the 2 nations stay ongoing. As many observers have famous, deep-rooted and structural variations — comparable to disputes over forex manipulation, export subsidies and different nontariff obstacles — proceed to solid a protracted shadow over the prospects of U.S-China commerce talks.
Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images
Below the terms of the Geneva deal, China agreed to droop or elevate its export ban on uncommon earths — one thing the U.S. accuses China of dragging its feet on.
Beijing, in flip, accuses the U.S. of breaking the Geneva agreement first and blames Washington for rolling out a wave of discriminatory measures towards China after the talks, together with new export controls on synthetic intelligence chips, a ban on promoting digital design automation software program to Chinese language firms, and plans to revoke visas for Chinese students.
Trump’s order banning American companies from using AI chips by China-based Huawei — issued simply in the future after the Geneva settlement on Might 12 — was seen by many in Beijing as immediately countering the spirit of the settlement. Certainly, it might properly have prompted Beijing to delay the resumption of uncommon earth exports to the U.S. within the first place.
Apart from the precise impact of the resumption of uncommon earth exports, Trump’s obvious precedence given to the difficulty indicators to Beijing simply how reliant the U.S. is on China on this regard — one thing that may not have gone unnoticed by Xi.
Xi by no means got here calling
Simply in the future earlier than the June 5 name, Trump wrote on social media: “I like President XI of China, at all times have, and at all times will, however he’s VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!”
His dialog with the Chinese language chief would have additional strengthened Xi’s powerful picture — not only for a Chinese language viewers, however for worldwide observers as properly.
This was definitely inspired by how China described the decision. Based on China’s official statement, Xi “took a cellphone name from U.S. President Donald J. Trump” – the refined implication being that it was Trump who initiated the decision.
This framing promotes the concept Xi holds the higher hand. The Chinese language assertion additionally highlighted that the Geneva talks had been “on the suggestion of the U.S. facet,” implying that China didn’t again down within the face of Trump’s commerce stress — and that it was Trump who in the end blinked first.
China’s message is especially vital on condition that, because the U.S.-China commerce warfare intensified in April, Washington believed it might achieve “escalation dominance” by imposing tariffs on Chinese language items — maybe underestimating China’s potential to retaliate successfully and assuming Beijing could be keen to barter.
Previous to the June 5 communication, Trump repeatedly expressed hope that Xi would name him, but Xi by no means took the initiative. On April 22, Trump instructed Time magazine that Xi had phoned him — an assertion that Beijing quickly denied.
All through the commerce standoff, Xi avoided initiating contact with Trump, and in the long run, it was Trump who reached out.
This undoubtedly enhanced Xi’s picture again residence — and doubtlessly undermined Trump’s negotiating posture.
The official Chinese statement following the talks famous: “The Chinese language facet is honest about this, and on the similar time has its rules. The Chinese language at all times honor and ship what has been promised. Either side ought to make good on the settlement reached in Geneva.”
These phrases seem aimed toward signaling to the worldwide neighborhood that it’s the U.S. — not China — that didn’t uphold its finish of the Geneva settlement.
The second-to-last paragraph of the Chinese language assertion on the cellphone name famous: “President Trump mentioned that he has nice respect for President Xi, and the U.S.-China relationship is essential. The U.S. desires the Chinese language financial system to do very properly. The U.S. and China working collectively can get a whole lot of nice issues performed. The U.S. will honor the one-China policy. The assembly in Geneva was very profitable, and produced a great deal. The U.S. will work with China to execute the deal. The U.S. likes to have Chinese language college students coming to review in America.”
Whereas a lot of this language could also be customary diplomatic rhetoric, it clearly goals to field in Trump because the supplicant within the present dispute and implies that he’s shifting nearer to China’s positions, together with key nontrade points like U.S. visas for Chinese language college students.
A sport of phone?
Apart from the optics or broader query of who’s “profitable” the dispute, the Trump-Xi name has definitely eased some tensions on either side — not less than briefly.
For the U.S., considerations over uncommon earth provides had been alleviated. For the reason that name, it has been reported that China has issued short-term export licenses to firms that provide uncommon earth supplies to America’s three largest automakers.
For China, Trump’s remarks seemingly helped cut back anxiousness over points comparable to Taiwan and scholar visa restrictions.
However given the deep and elementary variations between the 2 nations on commerce and financial issues — and recalling how commerce negotiations repeatedly stalled and restarted during Trump’s first term — there may be good cause to imagine that future talks might face comparable setbacks.
However what is evident now, particularly in contrast with the commerce warfare throughout Trump’s first administration, is that Beijing seems higher ready and extra expert at leveraging its uncommon earth exports as a bargaining chip.
In some ways, Trump faces the better stress in his dealing with of Xi. Ought to talks collapse, any ensuing provide chain disruptions might result in rising inflation, market volatility and financial woe for the U.S. — with the related dangers of political fallout forward of the midterm elections. Xi will know this and, in uncommon earth supplies, has an ace up his sleeve to drag out when wanted.
Certainly, Trump might discover himself needing to succeed in out to Xi once more sooner or later in an effort to revive troubled commerce negotiations. However doing so would solely reinforce Xi’s picture because the more durable and extra dominant determine.
