On his first day in workplace, Donald Trump launched his second time period with a barrage of executive orders. Unsurprisingly, many may have a serious impression on Mexico, which shares a 3,145-kilometre border with the US and greater than 200 years of diplomatic and economic ties.
But, this deep interdependence has not stopped Trump from making Mexico a prime target of his divisive political rhetoric.
He entered the general public area in 2015 by condemning Mexicans as harmful “rapists” and criminals who had been “bringing medicine” into the US. He additionally vowed to construct “a great, great wall” alongside the border – one he claimed Mexico would pay for – to cease undocumented immigrants.
Throughout his second presidential marketing campaign, Trump doubled down on his anti-Mexico rhetoric and agenda. He threatened mass deportations of undocumented migrants residing within the US, sweeping tariffs of over 200% on Mexican automobile imports and sending special forces into Mexico to assault drug cartels.
Trump’s government orders at the moment are placing these threats into motion. Among the many most regarding:
Although largely symbolic, the order to rename the Gulf of Mexico because the “Gulf of America” additional strains bilateral relations.
Given this focus, Trump’s lengthy shadow will loom over Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s personal time in workplace. She should navigate his hostility whereas tackling home challenges, together with a controversial judicial reform plan and relentless violence.
She has responded to Trump’s actions with measured remarks so far:
We now have to keep away from confrontations […] On the similar time, we’ve to behave as equals, by no means subordinate. Defend our sovereignty, our independence and defend Mexicans.
Mario Guzman/EFE/EPA
A closely securitised border
Trump’s declaration of a nationwide emergency permits him to deploy the army to the border and proceed constructing a border wall with out Congressional approval. He may additionally enact measures to broaden detention services, transportation (together with plane) and different logistical help for regulation enforcement.
Unlawful border crossings really declined dramatically in 2024. This was, partly, resulting from steps Mexican authorities have taken to stop migrants trying to succeed in the US.
Mexican authorities reported detaining over 475,000 migrants within the final quarter of 2024 — practically 68% greater than in the identical interval a 12 months earlier.
Juan Manuel Blanco/EFE/EPA
Regardless of these efforts – which have drawn criticism for human rights groups – Trump has labelled migrant crossings an “invasion.”
This belligerent rhetoric is harmful, as an invasion implies army aggression.
Certainly, Trump’s government order authorises the deployment of US troops on the border, although particulars are skinny. He may search the help of the Nationwide Guard, a state-based military force made up of civilian soldiers. US regulation, nevertheless, prohibits the use of regular military forces on home soil.
In any case, Mexico serves as a stark instance of why utilizing the army for regulation enforcement is unwise. More than a decade of data exhibits that army involvement fails to encourage lawful behaviour and as an alternative fuels corruption and violence.
Prospects for unilateral army motion
Trump has additionally initiated the method to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organisations – an motion Mexico has lengthy opposed.
Mixed along with his directive for the US secretary of defence to halt “the unimpeded move of opiates” throughout the Mexico-US border, this might in the end result in US army motion in opposition to organised crime in Mexico.
Sheinbaum responded by reaffirming Mexico’s sovereignty. She famous that whereas the US can act inside its territory, Mexico stays an unbiased state.
In a letter to Trump final November, she highlighted that in 2024, Mexican regulation enforcement seized 10,340 weapons and arrested 15,640 folks for drug-related violence. She additionally appropriately identified that Mexico neither produces weapons, nor has a national public health crisis linked to artificial medicine like fentanyl.
But, she lamented that Mexicans “bear the brunt of the deaths attributable to crime” pushed by the demand for medicine north of the border.
Any unilateral US army motion inside Mexico may significantly imperil relations between the 2 neighbours.
The final time the US significantly considered military action against Mexico was in 1927, when Mexico enacted petroleum and land legal guidelines that affected American pursuits. Since then, the connection has had its ups and downs, however has by no means concerned army pressure.
And these sorts of threats may have ripple results throughout Latin America. As former Colombian President Ernesto Samper has warned, an intervention in Mexico may spark a “Vietnam syndrome” of anti-American sentiment all through the area.
Tariffs will damage each side
As well as, Trump has vowed to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada beginning on February 1.
Such tariffs, nevertheless, couldn’t be applied with out additionally hurting US industries.
Mexico overtook China because the US’s top trading partner in 2023, with bilateral commerce reaching US$807 billion (A$1.2 trillion). Mexico’s financial system depends closely on commerce, with 83% of exports destined for the US.
In return, Mexico’s direct investments within the US totalled US$33.8 billion (A$54 billion) in 2022 – a powerful 21.5% enhance over the earlier 12 months.
The Mexican and US economies are tightly intertwined. If Trump imposes tariffs on Mexican beer, for instance, he will also be imposing them on barley from Idaho, Montana and North Dakota that’s used to make the beer.
Sheinbaum has accurately warned Trump that tariffs are usually not simply unacceptable below the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement – they may also lead to “inflation and job losses” throughout each the US and Mexico.
A relationship on the rocks?
Sheinbaum has suggested Mexicans to “keep their heads cool”.
However as Trump continues to exert strain on Mexico, it should develop into more and more tough for her to persuade the Mexican public of the advantages of sustaining a cooperative relationship with the US.
The potential deterioration of relations between Mexico and the US may sign a brand new period through which brute pressure, paradoxically, will diminish American affect within the worldwide neighborhood.
