Since taking workplace, US president Donald Trump has carried out insurance policies which were notably hostile in the direction of China. They embrace commerce restrictions. Most not too long ago, a 20% tariff was added to all imports from China and new technological restrictions had been imposed underneath the America First Investment Policy. This isn’t the primary time US-China tensions have flared. All through historical past the connection has been fraught by financial, army and ideological conflicts.
China-Africa scholar and economist Lauren Johnston offers insights into how these dynamics might also form relations between Africa and China.
How has China responded to hostile US insurance policies?
First, China tends to have a defiant official response. It expresses disappointment, then states that the US coverage place is not helpful to any nation or the world economic system.
Second, China makes moves domestically to prioritise the pursuits of key, affected industries.
Third, China will generally impose retaliatory sanctions.
In 2018, as an illustration, China imposed a 25% tariff on US soybeans, a crucial animal feed supply. The US Division of Agriculture had to compensate US soybean farmers for his or her misplaced revenue.
One other instance is how, following US tech sanctions, China took a extra impartial technology path. It has channelled billions into tech funds. The aim is to make financing accessible for Chinese language entrepreneurs and to push technological boundaries in areas of US sanction, comparable to semiconductors. These efforts are backed up by subsidies and tax reductions. In some circumstances, the Chinese language state will make investments straight in tech firms.
Extra not too long ago, China retaliated to the US commerce battle by
announcing tariffs on 80 US merchandise. China is about to put 15% tariffs on sure power exports, together with coal, pure fuel and petroleum. A further 10% tariffs might be positioned on 72 manufactured merchandise together with vans, motor properties and agricultural equipment.
Agricultural commerce has been exhausting hit. The day the US introduced a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, China introduced “an extra 15% tariff on imported rooster, wheat, corn and cotton originating from the US”. Additionally, “sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic merchandise, fruits, greens and dairy merchandise might be subject to an additional 10% tariff”.
How have these Chinese language responses affected Africa?
We will’t say for sure that China’s response to US commerce tensions has explicitly affected its Africa coverage, however there are some notable coincidences.
Lower than one month after Trump’s return to the White Home in 2025, and shortly after the primary tariffs had been slapped on China’s exports to the US, China introduced new measures to foster China-Africa commerce efforts. The coverage package deal aims to “strengthen financial and commerce exchanges between China and Africa.”
That is the newest in a sequence of Chinese language actions.
In January 2018 commerce hostilities began to escalate after Trump imposed a primary spherical of tariffs on all imported washing machines and solar panels. These had an affect on China’s exports to the US.
Later the identical yr, China imposed 25% tariffs on US soy bean imports and took steps to scale back dependence on US agricultural merchandise. China additionally took steps to increase commerce with Africa, agricultural commerce particularly.
In September 2018, Beijing hosted the Forum on China and Africa Cooperation summit, a triennial head of state gathering. It was introduced that China would set up a China-Africa trade expo and foster deeper agricultural cooperation. Within the days after the summit, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was already performing on this. A gathering of African agricultural ministers passed off in Changsha, Hunan province.
Hunan province has since taken centre stage in China-Africa relations. It’s now the host of a permanent China-Africa trade exhibition hall and a bigger biennial China-Africa financial and commerce exhibition (often called CAETE).
Hunan additionally hosts the pilot zone for In-Depth China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation. The zone has quite a few initiatives designed to beat obstacles to China-Africa commerce and funding, like assist in areas of regulation, know-how and forex, and vocational coaching.
Lastly, the zone is situated in an even bigger free-trade zone that’s higher linked to Africa by air, water and land corridors. African agricultural exports to China move via Hunan, the place native business either uses these imports or distributes them throughout the nation to retailers.
Corporations in Hunan are properly positioned to play a key function in supporting China-Africa commerce, capitalising on the alternatives left by China-US hostilities.
Hunan’s agritech big Longping Excessive-Tech, as an illustration, is investing in Tanzanian soybean farmers.
Hunan can also be dwelling to China’s development manufacturing and digital transportation frontier. This consists of world development big Sany, which produces heavy business equipment for the development, mining and power sectors. China’s world digital automobile manufacturing BYD and its digital railway business are additionally in Hunan. They have deep and increasing interests in Africa and also can assist China’s key minerals and tech race with the US.
As US-China hostility enters a brand new period, what are the implications for China-Africa relations?
As my new working paper sets out, African international locations are, for instance, responding to the brand new alternatives from China.
On the finish of 2024, whereas the world waited for Trump’s second coming, numerous African international locations made strikes to strengthen financial ties with China, Hunan province particularly.
In December 2024, Tanzania turned the primary African nation to open an official funding promotion workplace within the China-Africa Cooperation Pilot Zone in Changaha.
In November 2024, each the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Africa and the China Engineering Technology Exhibition had been held in Abuja, Nigeria. Equal occasions had been hosted in Kenya.
Early in 2025 in Niamey, Niger, a joint pilot cooperation zone was inaugurated , and which is direct associate of the China-Africa Pilot zone in Hunan.
As China strikes away from US agricultural produce, as an illustration, African agricultural producers can profit. Substitute African merchandise and potential exports will get pleasure from a worth increase, and elevated Chinese language assist.
China’s newly elevated curiosity in African growth and market potential will convey main prospects. The query might be whether or not African international locations are prepared to understand them, and to make use of that potential to foster an impartial growth path of their very own.
