The Trump administration’s decision to bomb Iran dramatically marks the now practically half-century of hostility between the United States and Iran, which started in 1979 with Iran’s takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the taking of 52 diplomatic hostages.
It stays unsure whether or not the Iran-Israel ceasefire will maintain, given President Donald Trump’s seemingly impulsive policy decisions and an Israeli leader who critics say pursues war to stay in power.
Extra unpredictability will be seen in a weakened Iran government that’s unpopular with its own people however should additionally wager that standing as much as the U.S. and Israel will induce its folks to rally across the flag, even when they don’t like who holds that flag.
As a U.S. international relations scholar, I feel no matter comes subsequent can be nicely knowledgeable by what has already occurred in U.S.-Iran historical past. That features a suggestion from Trump – who considers himself the consummate negotiator – to Iran to return to the negotiating desk.
The shah’s final go to to Washington
The opening bracket in trendy U.S.-Iran relations was the 1979 Islamic Revolution that overthrew Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi,“ whom a CIA covert action had restored to management a quarter-century earlier.
As a younger Nationwide Safety Council staffer, I stood on the South Garden of the White Home because the shah’s helicopter landed in 1977 for a state go to to his shut ally, america.
The episode was maybe a metaphor for the 2 nations’ relationship. I stood subsequent to a colleague who had written for President Jimmy Carter remarks that included fulsome praise of the shah, however his crack to me was: “You’ll acknowledge the shah. He’s the one with blood beneath his fingernails.” Beneath a proper alliance, there was a great deal of cynicism on the U.S. half concerning the shah’s repressive regime and use of secret police to suppress opposition.
Pro- and anti-shah protesters were demonstrating on the backside of the Ellipse, the park south of the White Home grounds. The U.S. Park Police, understandably however unwisely, sought to separate them with tear gas, which then wafted over the proceedings on the South Garden.
AP Photo
The affect of the hostage disaster
It’s unimaginable to overstate the impact of the 1979 hostage disaster, when Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding 62 American hostages for 444 days.
The Carter administration negotiated the Algiers Accords, which led to the discharge of the hostages in January 1981. There have been persistent accounts, none ever absolutely validated, that the incoming Reagan administration handled Iran to delay the release until after the new president’s inauguration.
The disaster not solely cost Carter his job, nevertheless it additionally solid an everlasting shadow over the U.S.-Iran relationship, compounding Individuals’ issue in understanding a regime that was not solely theocratic however Muslim.
The Eighties witnessed a whipsaw of relations.
From 1980 to 1988, as Iran and Iraq fought a bloody war to a stalemate, the U.S. noticed the facility of each nations contained, nevertheless it did present intelligence and logistical support to Iraq.
Then got here the Iran-Contra Affair of 1985 to 1987. It was the Reagan administration’s most severe scandal, by which White House officials illegally sold sanctioned arms to Iran and secretly diverted the proceeds to the Nicaraguan Contras. In a second straight out of comedian opera, Nationwide Safety Council aides introduced a goodwill chocolate cake to Tehran throughout a secret diplomatic mission in Could 1986.

AP Photo
In 1988, a U.S. ship struck an Iranian mine within the Persian Gulf. The U.S. retaliated by destroying oil platforms and damaging Iranian ships in “Operation Praying Mantis,” and tragically – and mistakenly – shot down Iran Air Flight 655, killing 290 civilians.
The Nineteen Nineties and 2000s once more displayed the boundaries of the connection.
In 1995, President Invoice Clinton imposed an oil and trade embargo towards Iran, and Congress handed the Iran–Libya Sanctions Act in 1996, which imposed financial sanctions on firms doing enterprise with Iran and Libya.
In 1998, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami known as for a “dialogue of civilizations,” prompting cautious U.S. alerts of engagement.
Then, in 2002, President George W. Bush labeled Iran a part of the “axis of evil,” a pointy rhetorical escalation. For its half, Iran alleged U.S. drone incursions and covert operations. Restricted diplomatic again channels emerged, however to no end result.
In 2009, President Barack Obama reached out to Tehran amid post-election unrest in Iran, however two years later Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, an important route for oil shipments to the West.
In 2015, the 2 nations have been get together to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, with Iran agreeing to restrict its nuclear program beneath worldwide oversight.
Two years later, although, President Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal and reimposed sweeping sanctions in a “maximum pressure” marketing campaign.
In 2019 and 2020, a collection of tit-for-tat escalations culminated within the Jan. 3, 2020, U.S. drone strike that assassinated senior Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Iran retaliated with missile strikes on U.S. bases within the area.
U.S. sanctions continued in the Biden administration as Iran pursued deeper ties with Russia, China and nonstate proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
What classes?
What will be realized from this tangled historical past?
First, that negotiations are attainable between the 2 nations, however they’re neither straightforward nor more likely to produce greater than restricted outcomes. Certainly, high-level oblique talks mediated by Oman started in April 2025, although they have been in suspension when the U.S. bombers struck.
Second, regardless of the Iran regime’s unpopularity, regime change in Iran is unlikely. Assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khameini would doubtless abet the “rally ‘around the flag” impact, as did the assassination of Soleimani.
Third, Iran has been cautious in its responses even to Israeli aggression however particularly in partaking the U.S. in army battle, a warning the American B-2 bombings on June 21 can solely underscore.
Iran needed to retaliate, so the attack on the U.S. base in Qatar got here as no shock. However Iran was cautious in retaliating, even notifying the U.S. in advance.
The dropping of U.S. bombs, adopted by Iran’s careful retaliation, was the chance for Trump to make a suggestion Iran couldn’t refuse.