Within the early hours of June 22, 2025, native time, america attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran with “bunker buster” bombs and Tomahawk missiles.
Following more than a week of Israeli strikes on varied targets in Iran – which had prompted retaliatory strikes from Tehran – the U.S. transfer marks a doable inflection level within the battle. In preliminary feedback on the strikes on the Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz services, President Donald Trump stated that Iran’s nuclear program had been “completely and fully obliterated.” In response, Iran’s International Minister Abbas Araghchi stated the U.S. had “crossed a very big red line.”
The Dialog U.S. turned to Javed Ali, an expert on Middle East affairs on the College of Michigan and a former senior official on the Nationwide Safety Council throughout the first Trump administration, to speak by why Trump selected now to behave and what the potential repercussions could possibly be.
What do we all know in regards to the nature and timing of US involvement?
President Trump has been forcefully hinting for days days that such a strike might occur, whereas on the similar time opening up a window of negotiation by suggesting as late as June 20 that he would decide “within the next two weeks.” We all know Trump will be very unpredictable, however he will need to have assessed that the present situations offered a chance for U.S. motion.
Trump met with the National Security Council twice within the days main as much as the strike. Sometimes at such conferences the president is offered with a menu of navy choices, which normally boil down to a few: a slender choice, a center floor and a “for those who actually need to go massive” strike.
The one he picked, I’d argue, is someplace between the slender choice and the center floor one.
The “go massive” choices would have been an assault on nuclear websites and Iranian management – be that senior members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, or presumably the Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The extra slender method would have been only one facility, prone to have been Fordo – a deeply fortified uranium enrichment website buried inside a mountain.
What did happen was a strike there, but in addition at two different websites – Isfahan and Natanz.
U.S. navy chiefs confirmed that that 12 GBU-57s – the so-called 30,000-pound bunker busters – have been dropped by B-2 bombers on Fordo, and two on Isfahan.
That means to me that the navy purpose of the operation was to destroy Iran’s potential to supply and or retailer extremely enriched uranium in a one-time strike moderately than drag the U.S. right into a extra extended battle.
Has the strike achieved Trump’s targets?
It should take a while to correctly assess the extent to which Iran’s potential to supply or retailer extremely enriched uranium has been broken.
Definitely we all know that the bombs hit their targets, they usually have been broken – however to what extent shouldn’t be instantly clear. Basic Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Employees, stated that each one three goal websites had suffered “extremely severe damage and destruction” – presumably rolling again from Trump’s “fully obliterated” assessment. Maybe most tellingly, Iran has not commented but on the extent of the injury.
However to Trump, the target was not simply navy however political, too. Trump has lengthy stated “no” to a nuclear Iran whereas on the similar time has expressed that he has no need to pull the U.S. into one other battle.
And this strike could enable Trump to realize these seemingly contradictory objectives. If U.S. preliminary assessments are appropriate, Iran’s nuclear program can have been severely compromised. However the strikes received’t essentially pull U.S. into the battle absolutely – until Iran retaliates in such a means that necessitates additional U.S. motion.
And that’s what Iran’s supreme chief and his navy generals might want to work out: Ought to Iran retaliate and, in that case, is it ready to take care of a heavier U.S. navy response – particularly when there is no such thing as a finish in sight to its present battle with Israel.
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What choices does Iran must retaliate towards US?
Iran has previously tried to reply proportionately to any assault. However right here is the issue for Iran’s leaders: There isn’t any possible proportionate response to america. Iran has no functionality to hit nuclear crops within the U.S. – both conventionally or by unconventional warfare.
However there are tens of thousands of U.S. troops in the region, stationed in Iraq, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar and Jordan. All are in vary of Iran’s ballistic, drones or cruise missiles.
However that military inventory has been depleted – each through the use of ballistic missiles in waves of assaults towards Israel and by Israel hitting missile launch and storage websites in Iran.
Equally, Tehran’s capability to reply by one of its proxy or aligned groups within the area has been degraded. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Gaza’s Hamas – each of whom have ties to Iran – are in survival mode following damaging assaults from Israel over the previous 18 months.
The Houthis in Yemen are in some ways the “final man standing” in Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance.” However the Houthis have restricted functionality and know that in the event that they do assault U.S. belongings, they are going to doubtless get hit laborious. Throughout Operation Tough Rider from March to Might this 12 months, the Trump administration launched over 1,000 strikes towards the Houthis.
In the meantime Shia militias in Iraq and Syria that could possibly be inspired to assault U.S. bases haven’t been lively in months.
After all, Iran might look exterior the area. Previously the nation has been concerned in assassinations, kidnappings and terror attacks overseas that have been organized by its Quds Power or by way of operatives of MOIS, its intelligence service.
However for Iran’s leaders, it’s more and more trying like a lose-lose proposition. In the event that they don’t reply in a significant means, they appear weak and extra susceptible. But when they do hit U.S. targets in any significant means, they are going to invite a stronger U.S. involvement within the battle, as Trump has warned.
The parallel I see right here is with the killing of Iranian general and commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020 by a U.S. drone strike.
On that event, Iran promised a powerful retaliation. Its retaliatory attack towards the U.S. Ain al-Asad air base in Iraq concerned 27 ballistic missiles and triggered the bodily destruction of a number of the services on base in addition to traumatic mind injury-type signs to dozens of troops and personnel, however no deaths. However, after this each the U.S. and Iran then backed off from deepening the battle.
The circumstances now are very completely different. Iran is already at battle with Israel. Furthermore, the U.S. went after Iran’s crown jewels – its nuclear program – and it was on Iranian territory. Nonetheless, Khameini is aware of that if he retaliates, he dangers frightening a bigger response.
Trump steered ‘additional assaults’ might happen. What might that entail?
The U.S. has steered that it has the intelligence and ability to hit senior management in Iran. And any “go massive choice” would have doubtless concerned strikes on key personnel. Equally there could possibly be plans to hit the Iranian financial system by attacking oil and gasoline targets.

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However such actions threat both damaging the worldwide financial system or drawing the U.S. deeper into the battle – it might evolve from a “one and executed” strike to a cycle of assaults and responses. And that might widen political cracks between hawks within the administration and components of Trump’s MAGA devoted who’re towards the U.S. being concerned in abroad wars.
Is there any alternative of a return to diplomacy?
Trump has not closed his “two weeks” window for talks – theoretically it’s nonetheless open.
However will Iran come to desk? Leaders there had already stated they weren’t keen to entertain any deal whereas below assault from Israel. Araghchi, Iran’s international minister, stated after the U.S. strikes that the time for diplomacy had now handed.
In any occasion, it’s important to ask, what can Iran come to the desk with? Have they got a lot of a nuclear program anymore? And if not, what would they attempt to negotiate? It might appear, utilizing one in all Trump’s phrases, they “don’t have the cards” to make a lot of a deal.